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Author Topic: Week 11 - Nov. 17 - Detroit @ Pittsburgh  (Read 2634 times)
aj_law
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« on: Nov 11, 2013 at 12:01 »

THE MARSH TWO THE PLA-HOFFFS IZ ON!!!!!!!1111
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aj_law
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« Reply #1 on: Nov 11, 2013 at 12:32 »

From Steelers Draft Pick Watch thread.


  • Week 11: 11/17/2013 1:00PM: Lions @ Steelers: I don't see how the Steelers can deal with the Lions offense (all of it) or their Defensive line in this game. Ben may leave this one early since Suh loves to put QBs out anyway. All signs point to the Steelers losing a blowout in this game...so expect them to win 10-6. *sigh*

Honestly, I could see Pittsburgh winning this game.  2nd in a back-to-back road game for Detroit coming off a big intradivisional win.  It wouldn't be much of a stretch to say that they're primed for a letdown.

Pittsburgh's defense has been bad, but Detroit's isn't much better.  They're good against the run, but they're definitely susceptible to big plays in the passing game.  Also, their front 7 is stout, but they're not a get-after-the-QB group.  Gonna be tough sledding for Bell and the ground game.  I'd be in 4-wide (or 3WR/1TE) all damned day.  Force them to their nickel and dime packages.  I don't see a lot of success for Pittsburgh in their big package.

Defensively, I dunno.  Double CJ and try to keep Bush in check; maybe have Troy shadow him.  Force Stafford to look elsewhere for completions.  Others on D have to man up and win their own individual battle.

I have to wait and see where the spread falls before I get a sense of how it's gonna play out.  I expect Pitt to be a home dog.  If it's on the low side (say, +2~ish or lower), I'd favor the Steelers.  If it's +3.5/+4 or higher, I'd probably lean Detroit.

Edit:  I probably should've thrown this in a GameDay thread.  Sorry for mucking up your thread, K-man.
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jonzr
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« Reply #2 on: Nov 11, 2013 at 13:21 »

I positively love your positivity aj.  I bet Megatron can't wait to run up and down the field being double-covered by the Steelers' sloth-like midget secondary.  It won't be Patriots ugly, but it won't be pretty either.  You say the Lions are good against the run?  HA!  They'll never be expecting the Steelers to run it 40 times!
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« Reply #3 on: Nov 11, 2013 at 18:19 »

Quote
Honestly, I could see Pittsburgh winning this game.

Unfortunately except for NE I could see Pittsburgh winning all our games.  Except we keep finding ways not to.

Wouldn't shock me if we won; despite all the hopes for a high pick, I'm anticipating we do just enough to lose there, just like we have in each game.  We'll end up with 7 wins, out of the playoffs and with mediocre draft position.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #4 on: Nov 12, 2013 at 06:54 »

Keenan Lewis limited Dez Bryant to 1 catch in the blowout loss.  Would be nice to have him on (or doubled up with) Calvin. 

Msdmnr's scenario is the scariest.  Either put it together and make a run (unlikely) or go for a top-10 pick (probably also unlikely).  But I do think we lose this game, so...
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aj_law
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« Reply #5 on: Nov 12, 2013 at 12:37 »

Keenan Lewis limited Dez Bryant to 1 catch in the blowout loss.  Would be nice to have him on (or doubled up with) Calvin. 

In retrospect, the better move would've been to dump Ike, eat the dead money and sing Lewis.

Msdmnr's scenario is the scariest.  Either put it together and make a run (unlikely) or go for a top-10 pick (probably also unlikely).  But I do think we lose this game, so...

Steelers at (+2) or lower are the pick here.
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kluisi61
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« Reply #6 on: Nov 12, 2013 at 13:07 »

Steelers at (+2) or lower are the pick here.

I must not understand gambling on the NFL (maybe why I never do it), but I wouldn't bet on the Steelers at +6 in this game. They haven't really shown any reason to believe that they will be able to stop the Lions offense and I can't count on the Offense showing up against any of the defenses that they have played this season, so I have no reason to believe that they will be able to one-dimensionally score against the Lions defense (which should have no problem shutting down the running game).

*Edited to add the additional information below*

They have shown no ability to even stay in the game with marginal to good teams (of which the Lions certainly qualify) like Cincy (10 points), Chicago (17 points), and New England (24 points). They have also shown the uncanny ability to lose to terrible to marginal teams like Tennessee (7 points), Minnesota (7 points), and Oakland (3 points).

Offensively in the games this year, the Steelers have scored 9, 10, 23, 27, 19, 19, 18, 31, and 23 points. Defensively, the Steelers have given up 16, 20, 40, 34, 6, 16, 21, 55, and 10 points. I would argue that the Lions have the best offense of anyone who they have played this year and I don't think they'll be able to hold them to the number of points that they will be able to score. What makes you think this one will be this close?
« Last Edit: Nov 12, 2013 at 13:21 by kluisi61 » Logged

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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #7 on: Nov 12, 2013 at 15:23 »

Last head-to-head matchup was a 28-20 Steelers win in 2009, with Duante Culpepper the Lions QB.  Relevance to Sunday’s game, jack fucking squat.  Lions and Steelers have mirror-opposite records of 6-3 and 3-6.  Stats, prejudicially selected:

Scoring:  Lions 26.4 PPG (7th), Steelers 19.9 PPG (25th).

First downs:  Lions 206 (opponents 174), Steelers 174 (opponents 169).

Third downs: Lions 50/118 (42.4%), Steelers 48/124 (38.7%).

Total rushing/passing/offensive yards: Lions 930/2762/3692, Steelers 725/2309/3034.

Turnover ratio: Lions +1, Steelers -11.

Stafford: 229-373-2836, 61.4%, 19 TD 7 INT, 94.1 QBR.

Roethlisberger: 218-338-2534, 64.5%, 10 TD 10 INT, 87.6 QBR.

Leading rushers:  Lions – Reggie Bush (133-623, 2 TD), Joique Bell (72-277, 4 TD); Steelers – Le’Veon Bell (102-339, 4 TD), Felix Jones (35-128, 0 TD), Jonathan Dwyer (29-139, 0 TD).

Leading receivers: Lions – Calvin Johnson (53-904, 9 TDs), Reggie Bush (34-343, 2 TD), Brandon Pettigrew (31-295, 1 TD), Joique Bell (27-296, 0 TD), Kris Durham (26-315, 2 TD), Nate Burleson (19-239,  0 TD); Steelers – Antonio Brown (67-805, 3 TD), Emmanuel Sanders (41-507, 2 TD), Jerricho Cotchery (31-455, 6 TD), Heath Miller (25-274, 1 TD), Le’Veon Bell (20-186, 0 TD).

PK:  David Akers 12-16 (80%), Shaun Suisham 19-21 (90.5%).

Sacks: Lions 15 (Ndamukong Suh 4.5, Ezekial Ansah 3.0, Nick Fairley 2.5, Stephen Tulloch 2.0, Willie Young 2.0, Devin Taylor 1.0); Steelers 16 (LaMarr Woodley 5.0, Jason Worilds 3.0, Cameron Heyward 2.0, Brett Keisel 2.0, Lawrence Timmons 1.0, Troy Polamalu 1.0, Jarvis Jones 1.0, Ziggy Hood 1.0).

Sacks Allowed:  Lions 10, Steelers 36.

Interceptions: Lions 11 (DeAndre Levy 5, Glover Quin 2, Louis Delmas 2, Chris Houston 1, Stephen Tulloch 1); Steelers 5 (Ryan Clark 2, Cortez Allen 1, Troy Polamalu 1, Lawrence Timmons 1).

Lions have a potent offense, and a weak defense that is nevertheless opportunistic.  Let’s say Lions are just about top-10 offense and are bottom-10 defense.  Steelers are a bottom-10 offense and a bottom-10 defense.  Steelers have a more balanced offense in terms of spreading the ball around to receivers, but Lions have better star power in Johnson and Bush.  Lions also use the RBs heavily in the passing game, both Bush and Bell.  Steelers have been burned by TEs and could be susceptible here.  I would rank the Lions somewhere around 10-12 overall, and Steelers 20-25 overall.
 
Key matchups:  Steelers D v. Lions rush, Lions D v. Steelers pass, Calvin Johnson v. all comers, Steelers D/ST v. field position/PK Akers.

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pensodyssey
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« Reply #8 on: Nov 12, 2013 at 15:44 »

I know we go through this every week, but… we could be just 1.5 back in the division come monday.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #9 on: Nov 12, 2013 at 20:11 »

I know we go through this every week, but… we could be just 1.5 back in the division come monday.

PENSO!  Look over there, a Kendrell Bell-aurographed wallet!

*Smothers Penso with a pillow*

*He fights courageously for 13 seconds*

Should have done that years ago. 

Reality is that even if the Lions are a borderline top-tier team and the Steelers are borderline bottom-feeders, not much separates.  The Lions and Cowboys battled it out to the bloody end, and frankly I don't see a ton of separation between Lions, Cowboys, and Steelers, although I would rank them in that order, roughly.  Cowboys and Steelers have shown some atrocious fucking D of late, 600+ yards allowed games, and Steelers are without Shamarko Thomas this week, and have the usual gimp OL, and Woodley dinged, and... ad nauseam.  Last week was the wrong week to predict 38-35.  This is the week for it.  And IMO, Stafford-Mega have the jujo to take this one. 

If we win, it proves nothing.  If we lose, it means nothing. 

O/U: 

Times Ben is sacked:  4.

Missed FGs by Akers:  1.

Antonio Brown receptions: 8.

TD by Jerrico Cotchery: 1.

Yardage by Calvin Johnson:  115.

TDs by Calvin Johnson:  2.

Total yardage by Reggie Bush:  150.

TDs by Reggie Bush:  1.

Roethlisberger INTs:  2.

Stafford INTs:  1.

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