Super Bowl XLVIII

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The Denver (-2.5) line scares me.  Expect it to be bet up unless the weather gets stupid. 

It's just begging for people to run with Denver and Manning.  Looks like Seattle (+2.5) is the play, but I just can't do it.  I don't think I can stomach a Seattle win.  Plus, going with a QB in Wilson who looked kinda like a deer in headlights in his first CC game doesn't give me a warm and comfy feeling.  Things don't generally get any easier in the SB against a first ballot HOFer QB.

Will probably stay away from game line, but the total number (O/U 47) has piqued my interests.  Think there's value in the under there.

It's a bookmaker's wet dream.  You could make a case for the under I suppose, but this could easily get in the upper 20's for both teams.  And young QB or not, the kid has poise.  Plus, he's not gonna have more that 20 attempts.  They'll stick to the program and pound Lynch.

If I'm Denver, I'm putting everybody in the box and forcing Russell to beat you with his arm. These kind of games have a way of eating up young, inexperienced QBs.

If I'm Seattle, I'm trying to keep the ball out of Manning's hands as much as possible. Take the air out of the ball and force Manning to audible to run plays. Probably spend most of the day in some sort of nickel type defense. Shorten the game and try to hold them to FGs instead of TDs.

I also think that the refs will play a big part in how this one plays out. If they "let 'em play," Seattle will probably take the upper hand with their aggressive defensive style. If they call things tight and you see the laundry a couple times on each series, that will open things up more for Denver and should favor them.

With all the pressure on Denver and Seattle's inexperience, I expect the score to be on the lower side...24-17, 23-20, 23-16...something like that.

It's kinda amazing to think that if it wasn't for a terrible play by the Denver secondary (and specifically, Rahim Moore) against the Ravens last year, the Broncos could be going for a back-to-back SB win.

Finnegans Wake:
Some similarities to the 2005 Steelers:  strong D & running game carrying the load for a 2nd year guy who makes heads-up plays.  (Edge?  Seahawks D & ground game; Ben).  Unfortunately, the 2013 Broncos >> 2005 Seahawks. 

Everyone talking about Broncos O v. Seahawks D:  should be a good matchup, but not the determinant one.  That goes to Seahawks O v. Broncos D, and of course the devil in the details (turnovers, special teams, penalties).  Both teams' D can be susceptible to the deep ball, for which the Denver receivers are built and for which I'd favor Wilson's arm over Manning's.  Who's got the stones to test it deep, early and often?  Maybe Carroll.  Fox is likable enough, a steady as she goes kind of coach, perhaps to a fault (cf. Reid?), and Carroll knows he has to keep the game manageable for Wilson, so maybe not a ton of risk-taking.  Harvin is clearly the wild card in this, but he got banged around last game and I'm not sure he's bringing it here either.  Expect some broken Seahawks coverages for long Broncos YAC and some broken up-in-the-box stuff against Lynch to go long.  Peyton has to pick apart the middle of the nickel, but the Seahawks won't blitz much, and don't have to with that DL.  Broncos OL has survived, but this will test them.

Slow early, some fireworks after, but sporadically; I think the Seahawks D comes up with some big plays late (Earl Thomas?), and the sharps had it right when the Seahawks opened as the slight fave.  People have been pounding the Broncos to shift the line, but I'll go with Seahawks 27, Broncos 21, Lynch is BeastVP, around 150 yards rushing and 2 TDs.

Quote from: aj_law on Jan 31, 2014 at 09:20

I also think that the refs will play a big part in how this one plays out.

I wonder if they'll ask Holmgren to give the pre-game.  He can tell them how to play against the refs.


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